Nigeria Faces 31,400 Projected Heat-Related Deaths, Report Warns

Nigeria could experience an estimated 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, making it the country with the highest projected toll globally during the period, according to a new report by the Climate Impact Lab.

The estimate forms part of a wider projection that an unusually strong El Niño weather pattern could contribute to about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027, compared with what would be expected in an average year. The report identifies Nigeria as particularly vulnerable, accounting for nearly half of the 66,800 additional deaths projected across Africa’s Sahel region over the six-month period.

The figures are projections, not deaths already recorded or a certainty that the estimated number of people will die. They are intended to show where the risk of heat-related mortality could be greatest and where timely measures might prevent deaths.

The report, titled 451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño, was published by the Climate Impact Lab, a research initiative involving economists and climate scientists. Its estimates draw on research into the relationship between temperature and excess mortality across 24,378 regions worldwide, combined with seasonal temperature forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The researchers compared the projected impact with average conditions over the 1996–2025 period and incorporated uncertainty in both temperature forecasts and mortality estimates.

The report projects that Nigeria could face 15,400 additional heat-related deaths between December 2026 and February 2027 alone. Indonesia is forecast to have the second-highest national toll, at about 19,300 deaths over the September-to-February period, followed by Sudan, with approximately 17,500. Niger and Chad are also among the countries facing substantial projected increases.

The findings come as El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to strengthen further. The phenomenon can shift global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat in some regions while contributing to drought or unusually heavy rainfall in others.

The World Meteorological Organization said in September that El Niño was firmly established and likely to intensify into a very strong event, with a near-100 per cent probability of persisting through February 2027 according to its seasonal forecasts. The agency warned that the pattern could significantly affect rainfall and temperature worldwide and raise the risk of heat, drought and flooding.

El Niño is not caused by climate change, but rising global temperatures can intensify its effects. The planet is entering the event with a higher underlying temperature than in previous decades, increasing the potential for dangerous heat when natural climate variability pushes temperatures higher. Reuters reported that Pacific sea surface temperatures had reached unusually high levels in September, while the WMO cautioned that the developing event could have substantial effects into 2027.

Extreme heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and potentially fatal heatstroke, while also placing additional strain on people with existing health vulnerabilities. Those who work outdoors, including farmers, construction workers and street traders, can face prolonged exposure, particularly where shade, drinking water and opportunities to rest are limited. People without reliable electricity or access to cooling may also have fewer ways to escape dangerous indoor temperatures.

The Climate Impact Lab says the projections can help authorities and humanitarian organizations identify where action could have the greatest effect. Measures identified by researchers include early-warning systems, heat alerts, access to cooling spaces and water, protection for outdoor workers, and adequate staffing and preparation at health facilities during periods of extreme heat. The report emphasizes that timely interventions could reduce the number of deaths rather than treating the forecast as an unavoidable outcome.

The estimates should nevertheless be interpreted with care. The Climate Impact Lab says the full details of its methodology are due to appear in a peer-reviewed journal, and the projected toll depends on the accuracy of seasonal forecasts and estimates of how temperature affects mortality. The figures describe additional deaths relative to a historical average, not the total number of heat-related deaths expected in each country.

For Nigeria, the warning highlights the potential public-health consequences of hotter conditions during the coming months, particularly for communities whose livelihoods depend on outdoor work and whose access to cooling and healthcare may be limited. With the El Niño pattern expected to persist into early 2027, the projections provide a time-sensitive indication of where heat-related risks could rise, and where better preparation may help prevent avoidable loss of life.