GM Sales Slow as U.S. EV Demand Weakens in Third Quarter

General Motors is heading toward a softer third quarter in the U.S., with industry forecasts pointing to lower overall vehicle sales and continued weakness in its electric-vehicle business as changing consumer preferences reshape the American auto market.

Cox Automotive estimates that GM will sell about 671,706 vehicles in the United States during the July-to-September quarter, down 5.2% from the same period last year and 5.5% from the second quarter. The forecast would leave GM with about 2.01 million U.S. vehicle sales through the first nine months of 2026, a 6.2% decline from the comparable period in 2025.

The 5.5% figure is therefore a quarter-on-quarter forecast, rather than a 5.5% year-on-year decline. GM's projected third-quarter decline against the same quarter last year is 5.2%, an important distinction as the company prepares to publish its official results.

The weakness comes as the U.S. automobile market undergoes a significant shift. Consumers facing much higher gasoline prices have increasingly looked toward hybrids and fuel-efficient vehicles, while demand for fully electric vehicles has weakened following the expiration of the federal EV tax credit in September 2025. Cox analysts have identified GM's limited hybrid lineup as one factor affecting its ability to capture consumers making that shift.

GM currently has a particularly limited presence in mainstream hybrid vehicles in the U.S., with the Corvette hybrid standing apart from the company's largely gasoline-powered lineup. That leaves the automaker exposed as Toyota, Honda and other Asian manufacturers benefit from broader hybrid offerings. Cox expects Asian automakers collectively to capture more than half of U.S. new-vehicle sales for a second consecutive quarter.

Electric vehicles are another part of the challenge. GM's EV volumes dropped sharply across several models during the second quarter, including the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Blazer EV and GMC Hummer EV. The company has responded by scaling back some of its EV investment plans and adjusting production to reflect weaker demand. Reuters reported in January that GM was taking a $6 billion writedown connected to its EV pullback.

The change in the EV market has also affected GM's production strategy. Reuters reported last week that the automaker was cutting planned production of the Chevrolet Bolt EV substantially, with the Kansas City-area plant expected to end Bolt production in early 2027 and shift toward gasoline-powered models. The move illustrates how quickly manufacturers are adapting factories and product plans to the post-incentive market.

Yet GM's position in the U.S. market remains significant. The company is still forecast to lead the industry in third-quarter sales, ahead of Toyota, which Cox expects to sell 642,707 vehicles. Toyota's projected 2.2% year-on-year increase would nevertheless narrow the gap considerably. GM's year-to-date market share is forecast at 16.7%, down from 17.4% a year earlier.

The broader competitive picture is changing as well. Cox forecasts Hyundai Motor Group, which combines Hyundai, Kia and Genesis, at 511,421 U.S. sales for the quarter, up 6.5% from a year earlier. That would put the group ahead of Ford on a quarterly basis, while Toyota continues to close the distance on GM.

The pressure is not limited to GM. Cox expects the Detroit Three—GM, Ford and Stellantis—to account for only about 36% of U.S. new-vehicle sales in the third quarter, which would represent a record-low share. The trend reflects a combination of consumer demand for fuel efficiency, strong competition from Asian manufacturers and the changing economics of electric vehicles.

GM's official third-quarter financial results are not yet due; the company has scheduled its Q3 earnings release for October 20. The sales figures currently circulating are therefore industry forecasts rather than GM's final reported results.

For General Motors, the numbers highlight a difficult balancing act: maintain the profitable trucks and SUVs that remain central to its business while rebuilding momentum in electrification and responding to consumers who increasingly want fuel efficiency without necessarily choosing a fully electric vehicle. The significance extends beyond one quarter's sales figures. As the U.S. auto industry enters a new phase of the transition away from traditional engines, GM's ability to respond to changing demand—not simply its ability to sell more vehicles, will help determine its competitive position in the years ahead.