Airlines Face a Fuel Fight as Hormuz Closure Squeezes Global Jet-Fuel Supplies

Airlines around the world are facing a fresh fuel headache as the prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz squeezes supplies of aviation fuel, forcing carriers and airports to search for alternative sources while preparing for higher operating costs and possible pressure on flight schedules.

The disruption has exposed just how dependent global aviation remains on a relatively concentrated network of oil refineries and fuel-shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical gateway for energy shipments, and restrictions on traffic through the waterway have disrupted the movement of crude oil and refined petroleum products, including jet fuel.

The consequences are being felt differently from one region to another.

Asia has been among the earliest markets to feel the squeeze, with airlines cutting some services, carrying additional fuel from their home airports and adding refuelling stops to journeys as supplies tighten. The International Air Transport Association has warned that Asia could be hit particularly hard because of the region's exposure to Middle Eastern energy supplies.

Europe is also under pressure.

Recent Reuters analysis found that European jet-fuel inventories had fallen to less than 30 days of demand cover, leaving the region particularly vulnerable if Middle Eastern supply disruptions worsen. Britain, France and Germany are among the countries most exposed because of their reliance on imported fuel and decades of refinery closures.

Europe has so far avoided a full-blown physical shortage by increasing imports from alternative suppliers, raising refinery output and drawing on existing stocks. The United States and Nigeria have emerged as important suppliers, while cargoes from Canada, India and South Korea have also helped fill some of the gap.

That does not mean the danger has disappeared.

The European Union previously warned that prolonged disruption could eventually create jet-fuel scarcity capable of affecting air transport, including through flight cancellations and changes to airline fuelling practices. At the time, Brussels said there was no immediate shortage but was preparing contingency measures should the situation deteriorate.

For airlines, the problem is not simply whether fuel can be found. It is where, when and at what price it can be obtained.

Fuel is one of the biggest expenses for an airline, meaning a sustained increase can quickly eat into profit margins. During the height of the crisis, jet-fuel prices more than doubled in some markets, prompting carriers to consider higher fares, capacity reductions, additional refuelling stops and other cost-saving measures.

African airlines face an especially difficult situation.

Around 70% of Africa's jet-fuel and kerosene imports have historically flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to S&P Global data cited by Reuters. The continent's relatively limited refining capacity makes many countries heavily dependent on imported aviation fuel, leaving carriers particularly exposed to international supply disruptions.

That vulnerability has already pushed some African airlines to adjust fares and consider capacity reductions. Fuel can account for a larger proportion of operating expenses for African carriers than for many airlines in other regions, leaving them with less room to absorb sudden price increases.

Nigeria, however, has an increasingly important role to play in the changing supply picture.

The Dangote refinery has helped Nigeria increase its ability to supply refined petroleum products to regional and international markets. Reuters reported that African countries have been able to increase imports from Nigeria, India and Oman as they search for alternatives to Middle Eastern supplies.

The shift has created an unusual situation for the global aviation industry: a crisis originating in one of the world's most important oil-shipping corridors is reshaping the direction of fuel cargoes across continents.

Refineries outside the Gulf are being asked to do more, while airlines are changing where they refuel and how they plan their networks.

Some carriers have also been able to protect themselves through fuel hedging or long-term supply arrangements. Others, particularly airlines with limited financial buffers, are more exposed to spot-market prices.

The pressure is not necessarily expected to disappear immediately even if shipping through Hormuz improves.

The International Air Transport Association has warned that restoring the physical flow of jet fuel could take months because the crisis has also affected refining capacity and disrupted established supply chains.

That is an important distinction for travellers.

A reopening of the Strait would remove a major obstacle, but it would not instantly refill depleted fuel inventories or return refineries and shipping networks to their previous operating patterns. Airlines may therefore continue to face elevated fuel costs even after the immediate geopolitical crisis begins to ease.

For passengers, the consequences could appear in several ways: higher airfares, fuel surcharges, altered schedules and, in the most exposed markets, reduced flight frequencies.

The situation also puts renewed attention on the aviation industry's long-term search for alternatives to conventional jet fuel. Sustainable aviation fuel remains far from large enough to replace conventional supplies at scale, but disruptions such as the Hormuz crisis demonstrate why airlines and governments are increasingly interested in diversifying where aviation energy comes from. IATA estimates that sustainable aviation fuel production in 2026 will represent only a tiny fraction of global jet-fuel demand.

For FollowGlobalTrends, the jet-fuel squeeze is a reminder that the world's aviation network depends on much more than airports and aircraft.

A conflict thousands of kilometres away can disrupt the fuel sitting underneath an aircraft's wings, increase the cost of a ticket and potentially alter the route a passenger takes to reach another country.

The longer the Hormuz disruption lasts, the more airlines will have to adapt, and the more travellers may feel the consequences of a crisis that began far from the airport.