Costa Rica’s Grynspan Tops Fifth UN Chief Poll, but Veto Threat Remains

Grynspan received nine “encourage” votes, six “discourage” votes and no “no opinion” votes in Wednesday’s fifth confidential poll, according to diplomats and reporting by Reuters and PassBlue. She was the only candidate to reach the nine-vote threshold generally required for a Security Council recommendation, but the six negative votes underline the uncertainty surrounding her candidacy.

The result was a step back from the previous poll on September 29, when Grynspan recorded 10 “encourage” votes, three “discourage” votes and two members expressing no opinion. Her latest tally means she has now led four of the five informal ballots held since July, although Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett briefly moved ahead of her in August.

Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, moved into second place in the latest round with six “encourage” votes, seven “discourage” votes and two “no opinion” responses. Rodrigues-Birkett received five “encourage”, nine “discourage” and one “no opinion”. Senegal’s former president Macky Sall also received five encouragements but was opposed by 10 members, according to the reported results.

The voting is not a formal election. Security Council members use the secret straw polls to test the viability of candidates before eventually recommending one person to the 193-member General Assembly. Under the UN Charter, the secretary-general is appointed by the General Assembly following a Security Council recommendation.

That process makes Grynspan’s six “discourage” votes particularly important. The ballots do not reveal which countries cast them, meaning it is impossible at this stage to know whether any of the five permanent members, the United States, China, Russia, France and United Kingdom, are opposed to her.

That matters because a candidate needs at least nine affirmative votes in the 15-member Council and cannot survive opposition from a permanent member. The reported straw-poll figures therefore show that Grynspan has enough apparent support to remain the frontrunner, but they do not establish that she can ultimately secure the backing needed for a formal recommendation.

The next round could provide a clearer picture. Diplomats cited by PassBlue said the sixth straw poll is expected on October 16, with the possibility of colour-coded ballots that would distinguish the preferences of the five permanent members from those of the elected Council members.

Grynspan brings extensive experience to the contest. The Costa Rican economist served as vice president of Costa Rica from 1994 to 1998 and later held senior positions in the UN system, including as UNDP regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean and associate administrator. She became secretary-general of UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in 2021, becoming the first woman to lead the organization. She took special leave from UNCTAD while pursuing the secretary-general campaign.

Her international record includes involvement in negotiations surrounding the Black Sea Grain Initiative and leadership of the UN Global Crisis Response Group on food, energy and finance. Costa Rica formally nominated her for the UN's top job in March, describing her as an experienced international leader with expertise in economic policy, development and multilateral cooperation.

The race has already seen several changes. Former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet withdrew in September, leaving seven candidates in contention. The remaining field includes Grossi, Rodrigues-Birkett, Sall, Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, Ecuadorian María Fernanda Espinosa and Ecuadorian-backed Ivonne A-Baki alongside Grynspan.

There is also a historic dimension to the contest. The United Nations has never had a woman as secretary-general since the organization was founded in 1945. Several of the leading candidates this year are women, but the outcome will ultimately depend on the political calculations of the Security Council's permanent members rather than the symbolic significance of the field alone.

The timing adds urgency. António Guterres is due to complete his second term on December 31, 2026, meaning the Council and General Assembly have only a limited window to settle on his successor and allow for a transition. The next secretary-general will inherit a UN facing wars and geopolitical rivalries, financial pressure and questions about the organization's ability to maintain influence in an increasingly divided international system.

For now, Grynspan has the strongest numerical position but not a guaranteed path to the UN's top office. The latest ballot is a reminder that leading an informal poll and winning the final diplomatic contest are two different things. As the Security Council moves toward more revealing rounds of voting, the decisive question will be whether Grynspan can turn broad support among Council members into the kind of consensus, and acceptance by all five permanent powers, needed to put her name before the full General Assembly.