AI Could Threaten Jobs of Nigerian Graduates as IMF Raises Global Alarm

Artificial intelligence is emerging as a new challenge for countries already struggling to create enough jobs for their growing populations, with the World Bank and International Monetary Fund warning that the technology could deepen employment pressures and widen economic inequalities if governments fail to prepare their workforces.

The warnings have taken centre stage at the IMF and World Bank Group’s annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, where policymakers are examining how AI could reshape economic growth, hiring and the future of work. While the technology promises greater productivity and new business opportunities, concerns are mounting that it could also eliminate certain roles, weaken demand for entry-level workers and leave people without the skills employers increasingly need.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that AI could affect about 40 per cent of jobs globally, with the share rising to 60 per cent in advanced economies. The impact would not necessarily mean that all these positions disappear. Some jobs could become more productive, others could change substantially, while certain roles could be reduced or eliminated altogether.

For Nigeria, where creating sufficient productive employment for a large and youthful population remains a major economic challenge, the implications are particularly important. If businesses increasingly use AI to handle routine administrative work, customer support, basic content production and other tasks traditionally assigned to junior employees, young people could find it harder to secure the first jobs that help them gain experience and build careers.

The concern is not limited to workers in technology. AI tools are spreading into banking, retail, education, communications and professional services, meaning that employees across different sectors may need to adapt as employers change how they organize work.

The World Bank’s assessment is more nuanced than a simple prediction of mass unemployment. Its World Development Report 2026: The Promise of Artificial Intelligence, published in August, estimates that 4.5 per cent of existing jobs in low- and middle-income countries are at risk of automation through generative AI, compared with 14.2 per cent in high-income countries. It also estimates that 16.2 per cent of jobs in developing economies could see meaningful productivity gains from the technology.

The difference partly reflects the nature of work in developing economies, where more people depend on manual activities and jobs that current AI systems cannot easily perform independently. But lower immediate exposure does not mean these countries are protected. The World Bank warns that gaps in electricity supply, internet connectivity, digital skills and institutional capacity could prevent developing economies from benefiting fully from AI.

That creates a difficult balancing act for Nigeria and its peers. Moving too slowly could leave local businesses less competitive and workers unprepared for changing job requirements. Adopting AI without adequate planning, however, could expose some workers to disruption without providing alternative employment opportunities.

The IMF has raised a related concern about the uneven distribution of AI’s benefits. Research published by the institution in January found that demand for new skills, particularly in technology and AI, is changing hiring patterns and wages. Although vacancies requiring these skills can offer higher pay, workers in occupations highly exposed to automation and with limited opportunities to complement AI face greater employment pressure. The analysis also identifies young workers as a group requiring particular attention.

The World Bank is urging developing economies to focus on practical, affordable AI applications that respond to local needs rather than attempting to compete immediately with countries building the most advanced AI systems. Its proposed approach, described as “Small AI”, includes tools that can help farmers improve decisions, enable small businesses to operate more efficiently and support public services.

For Nigeria, this could mean using AI to improve agricultural advice, streamline small-business administration, expand access to educational support and help local companies serve more customers. Such applications could create opportunities for workers and entrepreneurs, provided they are supported by reliable infrastructure, suitable training and access to finance.

The challenge is ensuring that productivity improvements translate into better employment outcomes. Employers may use AI to expand their businesses and create new roles, but they may also use it to reduce staffing costs. The overall effect will depend on how quickly companies adopt the technology, which tasks they automate and whether workers can transition into new or redesigned jobs. Governments, educational institutions and businesses therefore have a shared responsibility to prepare people for changing workplace demands. Updating curricula, expanding digital literacy, supporting vocational training and making retraining accessible to workers who have already left formal education will be important. Policymakers will also need to consider how social protection and labour policies can respond if technological changes displace workers faster than new opportunities emerge.

The World Bank and IMF are not predicting that AI will inevitably produce a jobs catastrophe in Nigeria. Their warnings point instead to a growing risk that countries which fail to prepare could miss out on productivity gains while allowing existing employment inequalities to deepen.

For Nigeria, the stakes extend beyond technology adoption. AI could help local businesses become more productive and open new avenues for economic growth, but that potential will count for little if young people cannot find meaningful work or acquire the skills needed to participate in the digital economy. The central question is whether the country can turn AI into a tool for creating better opportunities, rather than another force widening the gap between those who benefit from economic change and those left behind.