Why Trump Is Targeting China on Trade – and What Comes Next

Suddenly, Donald Trump’s trade war has snapped into sharper focus.

Rather than waging a multi-front battle against the global trading system, Trump now appears to be zeroing in on a familiar adversary: China.

Although the US has paused higher retaliatory tariffs on dozens of countries, a sweeping 10% tariff remains in place across the board. Yet China — which supplies everything from smartphones to toys and accounts for about 14% of all US imports — faces a staggering 125% tariff.

Trump claims the sharp increase is a response to Beijing’s retaliatory 84% levy on US goods, a move he described as a “lack of respect.”

But for the former president, who initially rode an anti-China message into the White House, this is about more than mere retaliation.

“We didn’t have the time to do the right thing, which we’re doing now,” he told reporters, suggesting that this second run at the presidency is a chance to finish what he started.

His aim? To upend a global trade order that has long centered China as the manufacturing hub of the world—and to challenge the once-popular belief that globalization, driven by Chinese exports, was inherently beneficial.

A Shift in Perspective

Back in 2012, when I first began reporting from Shanghai, the prevailing view across the international business community was that trade with China was a win-win. Business leaders, Chinese officials, foreign governments, and economists alike hailed the country’s rapid integration into global supply chains.

It was fueling global growth, offering cheap goods to the West, lifting millions of Chinese out of poverty, and opening doors for multinational companies eager to sell to China’s booming middle class.

By the time I arrived, China had already overtaken the US as the world’s largest market for Rolls Royce, General Motors, and Volkswagen.

The Broken Promise

There was also a deeper rationale behind this global enthusiasm.

The theory went like this: As China grew wealthier, political reform would follow. A more prosperous, consumer-driven society would demand greater freedoms.

But while China did grow richer, that political transformation never came. Instead, the Communist Party has only tightened its grip. Meanwhile, China’s shift to a consumer economy hasn’t happened fast enough.

Worse, Beijing has doubled down on its export-driven ambitions. In 2015, it laid out Made in China 2025, a bold state-backed initiative to dominate critical manufacturing sectors like aerospace, shipbuilding, and electric vehicles.

The following year, Trump—a political outsider—launched his presidential campaign, railing against the impact of China’s rise on American workers. He argued that Chinese exports had hollowed out US industry, especially in the Rust Belt, costing jobs and dignity.

A Persistent Economic Rival

Trump’s first-term trade war disrupted decades of bipartisan consensus. And while President Joe Biden maintained much of the tariff structure he inherited, the broader strategy hasn’t altered China’s trajectory.

Despite the economic pressure, China has only gained more ground.

Today, it produces 60% of the world’s electric vehicles, most of them from domestic brands. It also manufactures 80% of the batteries that power them.

Now, Trump is ramping up the pressure with a new round of punitive levies—a move that, under different circumstances, might have been the most seismic shock to global trade norms.

What Happens Next?

The future of this economic standoff hinges on two key questions:

First, will China accept Trump’s offer to negotiate?
Second, if talks do occur, would China be willing to overhaul the export-led model that underpins its economy?

No one can say for sure. Predicting Beijing’s reaction is difficult in this uncharted territory.

But caution is warranted. China’s commitment to its export-heavy economy is deeply intertwined with its vision of national strength and the supremacy of its one-party system.

Its grip on domestic information makes it unlikely that China will open up to American tech firms or reduce barriers to foreign competition anytime soon.

A Third Question for the US

There’s also a fundamental question facing America: Does the US still believe in free trade?

Trump often portrays tariffs not just as a bargaining chip, but as a net positive—tools to protect domestic industries, encourage companies to repatriate supply chains, and raise government revenue.

If Beijing comes to believe that tariffs are Trump’s ultimate goal, not a means to a deal, it may conclude there’s nothing to negotiate.

Rather than collaborating for mutual benefit, the world’s two largest economies could find themselves locked in a zero-sum race for dominance.

If that’s the case, it would mark a true break with decades of global consensus—and usher in a potentially volatile new era.

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