On Tuesday, a series of nearly simultaneous pager explosions rocked Lebanon, resulting in widespread injuries and fatalities. These explosions, believed to have been used by the militant group Hezbollah for internal communication, have triggered significant alarm and speculation regarding their cause and the broader implications for Hezbollah and the region.
The Incident
The explosions occurred at approximately 15:45 local time (13:45 BST) in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, as well as other areas across the country. Witnesses reported hearing small blasts resembling fireworks or gunshots. One of the most alarming aspects of the incident is the fact that the explosions seemed to have originated from pagers that individuals were carrying, many of which detonated in their pockets.
Footage captured in one instance shows a man’s pager exploding as he stood at a store till, adding to the chaos that followed. According to The New York Times, the pagers received messages that appeared to originate from Hezbollah’s leadership, but these messages instead triggered the detonation of the devices.
Scale of the Attack
The explosions persisted for about an hour, with widespread confusion and panic. Hospitals across Lebanon were inundated with injured individuals, and it is estimated that around 2,800 people were wounded, with at least nine confirmed dead. The injuries reported include severe damage to the face, eyes, and limbs, with some victims requiring amputations.
While the focus has been on the victims in Lebanon, similar incidents occurred in Syria, where 14 people were also reported injured.
Possible Causes
There is significant debate over how these explosions were orchestrated. Some cybersecurity analysts have suggested that a hack could have triggered the pager batteries to overheat and explode. However, the nature of the explosions — and their synchronization across the country — has led many to believe a supply chain attack was more likely. This type of attack would involve tampering with the pagers before they reached Hezbollah members.
Supply chain attacks are rare, especially ones targeting hardware, but they are not impossible. Experts have suggested that small amounts of explosives could have been inserted into the pagers months earlier and later triggered by a remote signal.
According to Lebanese security officials, this scenario seems likely, although it would have required a highly coordinated and sophisticated operation, potentially with foreign involvement.
Victims and Aftermath
Among the victims, two were the sons of Hezbollah MPs, while the daughter of another Hezbollah member was also killed. Additionally, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was injured, though his injuries were minor.
Lebanon’s Public Health Minister, Firass Abiad, noted that the vast majority of injuries involved damage to the face and hands, with several cases of amputations. The victims included both Hezbollah members and civilians, with some casualties being children and healthcare workers.
Who is Responsible?
Though no group has claimed responsibility, Hezbollah and Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, have directly blamed Israel for the attack. Hezbollah issued a statement accusing Israel of a “criminal aggression” that targeted civilians and warned of consequences for what it called a “sinful” action.
Israeli officials have not publicly commented on the allegations. However, sources reported by Axios suggested that these explosions were originally intended as the first move in a broader offensive against Hezbollah. Israeli intelligence reportedly became concerned that Hezbollah had uncovered this plan, leading to the premature detonation of the devices.
Several experts agree that Israel’s involvement seems plausible, given its history of targeting Hezbollah through technological means. However, the scale and precision of this attack have been described as unprecedented.
Hezbollah’s Use of Pagers
Hezbollah has long relied on pagers as a communication tool, considering them less vulnerable to tracking compared to mobile phones. The group has refrained from using smartphones due to concerns over Israeli surveillance, which has led them to adopt low-tech alternatives like pagers.
The pagers in question, identified as the Rugged Pager AR-924, were manufactured by Taiwanese company Gold Apollo. However, the company has denied involvement in the explosions, stating that the pagers were produced for a European company and that they had no control over their final use.
Implications for Hezbollah
The incident is seen as a major embarrassment for Hezbollah. The group, which prides itself on its tight security, has suffered a significant breach in its communication network. According to Emily Harding, a former CIA analyst, the scale of the breach will force Hezbollah to rethink its security apparatus and conduct a comprehensive internal investigation.
Some experts suggest that this breach could distract Hezbollah from its ongoing hostilities with Israel, weakening its operational capabilities and morale.
The Broader Hezbollah-Israel Conflict
The timing of the blasts is significant, given the escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. For months, the two sides have engaged in a low-level conflict, exchanging rocket and missile fire across Israel’s northern border. Entire communities have been displaced as a result of the conflict.
Israel’s recent actions, including the thwarting of a Hezbollah assassination plot against a former official, indicate that tensions are only rising. Despite the escalating violence, both sides have so far avoided crossing the threshold into full-scale war. However, the pager explosions could mark a significant turning point, leading to more severe retaliation and potential escalation in the coming days.
The Hezbollah pager explosions have left Lebanon in shock, raising serious questions about the group’s security and vulnerability. While Israel has been implicated, no concrete evidence has surfaced to fully confirm the source of the attack. Regardless, the incident is likely to have profound implications for Hezbollah’s operations and the broader geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
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Source: BBC