Trump’s Tariffs Deal Major Blow to Vietnam’s Economic Goals and Southeast Asia’s Stability

U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, which now apply to much of the world, have officially taken effect—and Southeast Asia, after China, has taken the hardest hit.

Vietnam and Cambodia are at the top of the list, slapped with staggering tariff rates of 46% and 49%, respectively. Other nations haven’t escaped either: Thailand faces 36%, Indonesia 32%, Malaysia 24%, the Philippines 17%, and Singapore 10%.

For a region that relies heavily on exports, this is a significant economic shock. Much of Southeast Asia’s remarkable development over the past 30 years has been fueled by manufacturing goods for international markets—particularly the United States.

Exports to the U.S. account for roughly 30% of Vietnam’s GDP and 25% of Cambodia’s. Now, that growth engine is under threat.

A Critical Challenge for Southeast Asian Economies

The long-term impact of Trump’s tariff hike will differ across countries, but it poses a particularly serious challenge to the governments of Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand.

Vietnam’s foreign policy, often referred to as “bamboo diplomacy” for its delicate balance between China and the U.S., now faces a major test.

Under the leadership of newly appointed Communist Party Secretary-General To Lam, Vietnam has launched an ambitious agenda: to become an upper-income, knowledge-driven, tech-based economy by 2045. Central to this plan is sustaining annual growth above 8%, with increasing exports to the U.S.—its largest trading partner—playing a key role.

The elevation of U.S.-Vietnam relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2023 was also rooted in this export-driven vision.

But that vision now faces new headwinds. “The Communist Party, which tolerates little dissent and has no formal political opposition, depends on its economic pledges for its legitimacy. Already viewed by many economists as too ambitious, these will now be even harder to meet.”

Political Ramifications in Thailand and Cambodia

While Thailand’s economy is less dependent on U.S. exports—under 10% of its GDP—the country is already struggling after a decade of underperformance. The Thai government has sought ways to revive growth, even unsuccessfully attempting to legalize gambling. The added blow from Trump’s tariffs is one it can ill afford.

Cambodia may be facing the gravest threat of all. The government of Hun Manet, who took over from his father Hun Sen two years ago, remains authoritarian and fragile. The regime has relied on granting economic privileges to rival elite families—through land concessions and monopolies—to maintain power. This has fueled excessive property development and growing public discontent over land seizures.

The garment industry, employing 750,000 Cambodians, has long served as a social stabilizer by providing consistent income to the country’s poorest. Thousands of those jobs are now at risk.

Region Looks to Diplomacy, But U.S. Signals No Compromise

Unlike China, which has responded with retaliatory tariffs, Southeast Asian nations are opting for diplomacy over escalation. Vietnam has sent Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc to Washington to negotiate, offering to eliminate all tariffs on American imports. Thailand plans to dispatch its finance minister with similar offers, including increased purchases of U.S. goods like aircraft and food.

Malaysia, where U.S. exports represent only 11% of GDP, is less impacted. Still, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is heading to Washington to discuss the issue.

However, the Trump administration appears unfazed by these overtures.

Peter Navarro, Trump’s senior counsellor on trade and manufacturing—and one of the architects of the new tariff strategy—dismissed Vietnam’s offer as inadequate. “Vietnam’s offer of zero tariffs was meaningless, because it would not address the deficit in trade where Vietnam sells $15 worth of goods to the US for every $1 it buys.”

He went further, accusing Vietnam of deploying “multiple non-tariff barriers” and claiming “one-third of all Vietnamese exports to the US were actually Chinese products, trans-shipped through Vietnam.”

While independent trade studies suggest the figure is between 7% and 16%, not one-third, Navarro’s comments signal the administration’s unwillingness to budge.

The Human Cost

Cambodia, too, is appealing for a postponement of the tariffs, hoping to begin negotiations. The American Chamber of Commerce in Cambodia has called for the 49% tariff to be dropped, warning that it will devastate the country’s garment sector—the largest employer. The Chamber also noted, “no tariff level, however high, will see clothing and footwear manufacturing return to the US.”

Perhaps the most extreme case is Myanmar, now mired in civil war, where Trump has imposed a 44% tariff. With less than 1% of Myanmar’s GDP coming from U.S. exports, the move seems symbolic—yet it threatens one of the few reliable income sources for urban families: the garment industry.

A Shift in Regional Sentiment

Ironically, Trump has enjoyed strong popularity in parts of Southeast Asia. In Vietnam, he’s been admired for his bold, transactional foreign policy style. Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen, still influential behind the scenes, famously cultivated ties with Trump and even posted selfies from their first meeting in 2017.

Just last month, Cambodia praised Trump for shutting down U.S.-funded media networks like Voice of America and Radio Free Europe, which often platformed dissident voices.

But now, like its neighbors, Cambodia finds itself at Trump’s doorstep—one of many pleading for tariff relief.

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