US President Donald Trump has a reputation for making swift moves in international diplomacy. After a series of foreign policy setbacks—including attempts that fell short in Gaza and Ukraine, airstrikes in Yemen, and a global trade war—Trump has now set his sights on Iran.
For Trump, Iran is personal. The issue of Iran’s nuclear ambitions remains unresolved from his first term, and it continues to dominate his foreign policy agenda. His central question remains the same: What will prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons?
Iran has repeatedly denied any intentions to build nuclear arms, but many in the international community remain unconvinced. There’s widespread concern that Iran seeks, at the very least, the capability to develop a nuclear warhead. This fear has raised alarms about the potential for an arms race or even a full-scale war in the Middle East.
Back in 2015, Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with six world powers—the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China. In exchange for limiting its nuclear activities and allowing international inspections, Iran was promised the lifting of economic sanctions.
However, in 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the deal, criticizing it for funding Iran’s proxy militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah. The US subsequently reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran, which led Tehran to resume its nuclear enrichment activities, steadily violating parts of the agreement.
With Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, analysts fear the country could soon have enough to build a nuclear warhead. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates that Iran is just a step away from producing six nuclear bombs if it further enriches the uranium.
On February 4, Trump reinforced his “maximum pressure” campaign by signing a memorandum that directed the US Treasury to impose additional sanctions on Iran and penalize countries violating existing sanctions, particularly those buying Iranian oil.
Now, the White House is pairing economic pressure with diplomacy. Last month, Trump reached out to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, offering negotiations in the hope of striking a deal within months.
Trump has since agreed to direct talks between US and Iranian officials in Oman this weekend, warning Iran that failure to negotiate would lead to military action. “If the talks aren’t successful with Iran, I think Iran is going to be in great danger,” Trump said on Monday.
So, how will Iran respond?
Some policymakers in Tehran may be open to a deal that could relieve the country’s economically strained situation, as its currency collapses and inflation soars. But any such agreement would likely demand compromises that could alienate hardliners within the country.
Recently, Iran has faced significant setbacks. Its proxy militias have been weakened by conflict with Israel, and its regional ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has been ousted. Some in Tehran now argue that this could be the ideal moment to develop a nuclear deterrent.
Despite the urgency, the US and Iran seem far apart in their demands. The US has made it clear that it wants a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, including an end to uranium enrichment and support for militant groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.
For Iran, agreeing to completely halt uranium enrichment—even for civilian purposes—has long been a non-negotiable demand. Tehran has advanced its nuclear capabilities significantly in recent years, and its scientists now have much greater expertise in the field than they did a decade ago.
Israel, meanwhile, has made it clear that it would accept nothing less than the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pointed to the example of Libya, where the late Muammar Gaddafi dismantled his nuclear program in 2003 in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
But Iran is unlikely to follow Libya’s lead.
What happens if talks fail?
Israel has long considered military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but many of Iran’s nuclear sites are deeply buried in underground bunkers. Military experts suggest that Israel would require US support, including special forces on the ground, to guarantee the successful destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Such an operation would be risky and unlikely to guarantee success. Additionally, Trump has positioned himself as a president who wants to avoid “forever wars,” so a full-scale regional conflict could be one he wishes to avoid. Still, reports indicate that he has already bolstered Israel’s air defense systems and deployed long-range B-2 bombers to the region.
At this point, Trump is clearly aiming for a diplomatic solution, one that Israel may have to accept, even if its provisions aren’t entirely favorable. However, if negotiations fail, he has warned that military options are still on the table, with potentially devastating consequences.
For now, Trump has given both sides two months to reach a deal. It is important to note that it took two years of hard negotiations to reach the original JCPOA, and hastily brokered diplomacy has not always been successful.
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