Claudia Sheinbaum is set to make history as Mexico’s first female president, winning a landslide victory that marks a significant milestone for a country with deeply rooted traditional values and a predominantly Roman Catholic population.
Election Results
At least five exit polls show Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, leading with a significant margin. Pollster Parametria forecasts that Sheinbaum will secure 56% of the vote for the ruling MORENA party, compared to 30% for opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez. Provisional results confirm Sheinbaum’s lead with 59% of the vote against Galvez’s 29%, with 5% of the votes counted. Galvez has yet to concede and has urged her supporters to wait for the official results.
Historical Context
Sheinbaum’s imminent victory is a major step for Mexico, challenging the country’s macho culture. She will be the first woman to win a general election in the United States, Mexico, or Canada. “I never imagined that one day I would vote for a woman,” said Edelmira Montiel, an 87-year-old Sheinbaum supporter from Tlaxcala. Montiel highlighted the progress women have made in political participation.
Challenges Ahead
Sheinbaum faces the challenge of balancing welfare promises with economic constraints. She inherits a substantial budget deficit and sluggish economic growth. She has pledged to improve security, but details are sparse. The election, marked by the murder of 38 candidates, underscores Mexico’s severe security issues. Analysts like Nathaniel Parish Flannery argue that without significant investment in policing and reducing impunity, Sheinbaum may struggle to enhance overall security.
Election Violence
The election was marred by violence, including the killing of two people at polling stations in Puebla state. Under outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, over 185,000 people have been killed, the highest in modern Mexican history, though the homicide rate has slightly decreased.
Legislative and Local Elections
The MORENA party declared victory in the Mexico City mayoral race, though the opposition disputes this claim. MORENA is expected to hold a simple majority in Congress but will lack the two-thirds majority needed for constitutional reforms without opposition support.
U.S. Relations
Sheinbaum’s administration will face complex negotiations with the United States over migrant flows and drug trafficking. These discussions may become more challenging if Donald Trump, who has threatened tariffs on Mexican-made Chinese cars and military action against cartels, wins the U.S. presidency.
Domestic Issues
Domestically, Sheinbaum will address electricity and water shortages and encourage nearshoring to boost manufacturing. She must also decide on the future of Pemex, the state oil company struggling with debt and declining production. Alberto Ramos of Goldman Sachs stresses the need to rethink Pemex’s business model to avoid continuous public financial losses.
Economic Policies
Sheinbaum plans to expand welfare programs despite Mexico’s significant deficit and expected GDP growth of just 1.5% next year. She rejects claims that she will be a “puppet” of Lopez Obrador, asserting her independence while continuing many of his policies benefiting Mexico’s poorest. Political analyst Viri Rios suggests that sexism underlies the skepticism about Sheinbaum’s autonomy.
Conclusion
Claudia Sheinbaum’s likely victory marks a transformative moment for Mexico. While she faces considerable economic and security challenges, her leadership represents a significant shift in Mexican politics and society.
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Written By Joe Brens