In a significant political shift, early results from South Africa’s parliamentary elections suggest the African National Congress (ANC) is set to lose its majority for the first time in 30 years. This development marks a potential end to the ANC’s unchallenged rule since the end of apartheid.
Election Overview
South Africans voted on Wednesday to elect a new parliament, which will subsequently choose the next president. With results from 29.5% of polling stations counted, the ANC’s share of the vote stands at 42.5%, a sharp decline from the 57.5% it secured in the 2019 elections.
The ANC’s Declining Influence
Once the dominant political force, the ANC’s grip on power is weakening. Years of corruption scandals, economic stagnation, rising unemployment, and failing infrastructure have eroded public trust in the party. The loss of a parliamentary majority will compel the ANC to consider forming coalitions, a first in its post-apartheid history.
Rising Competitors: DA and MK
The pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) has garnered 25.1% of the vote, positioning itself as a major player in the new parliament. Meanwhile, the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) secured 9% of the vote.
A notable development is the emergence of uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), a new party led by former president Jacob Zuma, which has captured 8.6% of the vote. MK’s rise has significantly impacted the ANC’s support, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s home province and a traditional ANC stronghold.
Potential Coalitions
The ANC’s need for coalition partners to maintain power has led to speculation about possible alliances. While it shares some policy positions with the EFF and MK, a coalition with these parties could alienate investors. The DA, although a rival, could be a more market-friendly partner for the ANC.
Market Reactions and Economic Concerns
The political uncertainty has rattled financial markets. The South African rand fell over 1% against the U.S. dollar, and the broader equity index dropped nearly 1.9%. Local and international bonds also faced pressure. The business community fears that a coalition involving the EFF or MK could lead to policies that might further destabilize the economy.
Statements from Key Figures
Helen Zille, chairperson of the DA’s federal council, emphasized the importance of preventing a coalition between the ANC and more radical parties. “That would spook investors, it would tank the economy, it would be a disaster for South Africa,” she said. However, she clarified that the DA is not currently in talks with any parties to form a coalition.
ANC Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane expressed surprise at the results in KwaZulu-Natal but remained hopeful. “It’s still early, we want to give ourselves the space to reflect. The race is not yet over,” she commented.
The MK party, in contrast, celebrated its performance, criticizing what it termed “Ramaphosa’s dismal regime” and outlining policies reminiscent of the ANC’s approach during Zuma’s presidency.
Next Steps
The electoral commission has seven days to declare the full results, although this is often completed more quickly. The new parliament must convene within 14 days of the final results to elect the nation’s president. Current ANC leader and incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa remains a candidate, but the party’s poor performance could spark internal leadership challenges.
Conclusion
South Africa is poised for a major political transformation as the ANC faces the reality of losing its parliamentary majority. The coming days will be crucial in determining the formation of coalitions and the future political landscape of the country.
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Written By Joe Brens